Written by Damien Roylance, Managing Director of Entourage
Spring has arrived, and normally that means one thing for property: more listings, more auctions and more buyers competing for homes.
But this Spring, we’re entering a very different market.
The latest Cotality figures show Australian home values fell 0.9% in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines. National values are now 3.6% below their March peak, while 93% of capital-city suburbs recorded falling values over winter.
So there’s no question the property cycle has changed.
The more interesting question is: what should buyers do about it?
August property market at a glance
Monthly change in dwelling values
Sydney -1.4% | Melbourne -1.1% | Canberra -1.1% | Brisbane -1.0% | National -0.9% | Adelaide -0.8% | Perth -0.8%
Source: Cotality, August 2026
Why Melbourne has my attention
This is where I think things get particularly interesting.
Melbourne has underperformed many of Australia’s other capital cities for several years. While markets such as Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide experienced enormous growth through and after the pandemic, Melbourne’s growth has been far more subdued.
Speaking to a leading property economist, she feels that Melbourne won’t feel this downturn as bad as the other states who have been up for so long. How much worse can Melbourne get as it is and I still believe it is a great city.
Cotality’s analysis shows Melbourne has one of the smallest buffers of the major capital-city markets after years of weaker growth. A decline of more than 10% from its peak would take Melbourne dwelling values back towards pre-pandemic levels.
By comparison, some of the markets that have experienced huge growth have considerably further to fall before giving back those gains.
Does that mean Melbourne has reached the bottom? Maybe.
Prices could absolutely fall further.
But I think we’re getting to the point where Melbourne deserves a very close look from long-term buyers, especially owner occupiers if this is where you want to live long term. If you are 6 months early for when the bottom hits, then that is fine as property is a long term game and hopefully the uplift will be strong when it does bounce back.
And that’s exactly why the current market interests me.
The opportunity may be in the lack of competition
When property prices are booming, everyone wants to buy.
When prices are falling, suddenly nobody does.
That’s human nature – but it can also create opportunity.
We’re currently seeing softer buyer demand, lower transaction volumes and less competition in parts of the market.
For sellers, that’s obviously challenging.
Preparation beats prediction
That’s really my message for September.
I’m not telling people to rush out and buy property but also don’t wait if you are ready now as the bottom is near or it could be today.
I’m saying get yourself into a position where you have a choice.
Understand your borrowing capacity.
Know what repayments you’re comfortable with.
Have your pre-approval organised.
Know the areas and types of properties you’re interested in.
Then be patient.
Because at some point, this cycle will change and when it does, it will could move fast as Melbourne has not been this flat in 50 years. When you look at the last time Melbourne had 5 years of stagnant growth, the next 5 years boomed. See below the 10 years of growth from 1990-2000
The 1990–1995 Melbourne period is fascinating because it looks remarkably similar to a prolonged property slump rather than a classic crash.
Using a long-run Melbourne median house-price series, prices went approximately:
But what will trigger it??? Could be a government change, could be interest rates, or it could simply be confidence returning.
We won’t know the catalyst until it happens.
But when sentiment changes, buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines can return surprisingly quickly.
Already own? Don’t ignore your existing loan
This market isn’t only relevant to buyers.
For existing homeowners, it’s also a good time to look at the debt you already have.
If you’re on a variable rate and haven’t reviewed your mortgage recently, a simple loan health check can tell you whether your current rate and loan structure are still competitive.
Your Entourage broker can run the numbers with you and see whether there’s anything worth changing.
Sometimes the best financial move isn’t buying another property.
It can be making what you already have work better.
My September Take
I’m not calling the bottom of Melbourne.
But I do think Melbourne is becoming increasingly interesting.
After years of underperforming some of Australia’s booming property markets, softer prices and reduced buyer competition are creating conditions we haven’t seen for some time.
Could prices fall further? Absolutely.
Could today’s market look like an opportunity with the benefit of hindsight? I think that’s possible too.
So rather than trying to predict exactly what happens next, my strategy is simple:
Patience + preparation.
Don’t buy because someone tells you the market is about to turn.
But don’t wait until everyone else is confident again before getting yourself ready.
Because sometimes the best opportunities appear while everyone else is still waiting.